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Nevada election by mail. Most gave joe biden a solid even commanding lead heading into election day. Whats changed since polls were wrong about 2016s presidential election many people were surprised when donald trump won the presidency. Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the election winner.
Nprs rachel martin talks to database journalist dhrumil. As the new york times reported no matter the polling method biden was ahead. As if a seven percent beat down is not bad enough remember the 8 democratic oversampling still has to be accounted for.
In reality the polls were a lot more accurate than some commentators make. If youre looking for a definitive reason why those crucial swing state polls were wrong good luck. President trumps victory in 2016 came as a shock to many americans in large part because national polls showed his opponent hillary clinton leading the race up until the election.
So the presidential election really comes down to about 15 battleground states that swing red or blue depending on the election cycle. Remarkably if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016 trump would win with 279 of the 538 electoral votes while biden would get 259. The final quinnipiac university poll before election day showed democrat joseph r.
How did the polls get it so wrong again. Citing concerns that polls were extraordinarily wrong there was concern about voting stopping overnight and ballots being moved to various places bruce said that it is. Recount delays contested outcomes.
Trump wins 2020 presidential election if we take the same uncertainty as during 2016 election. In the year or so since the 2016 election weve heard a number of explanations that either don. The cnn poll shows trump leading biden 52 to 45 in those battleground states by a whopping 7 margin.
A Year After The 2016 Presidential Election Here S A Look At What The Polls Got Wrong And Right Orange County Register Nevada Election By Mail
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